Teresa's sudden idea drew all the knights' attention to her. The sorceress held her Violet Staff and said seriously, "Is it possible that Chaos and the Undead have formed a fragile alliance?"
"This possibility cannot be ruled out," Ryan was the first to partially agree with Teresa, which made the sorceress secretly delighted. However, the Lake Witch, Morgiana, immediately retorted, "I don't mean to target you, Ms. Teresa, but an alliance between the Undead and Chaos? What would be the point?"
"What would be the point?" Teresa naturally took over the conversation, glancing at Ryan's expression.
Ryan's face showed a bit of curiosity and interest, which greatly encouraged Teresa. Ignoring the displeased looks of the dozen Grail Knights and over twenty noble knights in the tent, she continued, "It's because of pressure, immense pressure forcing the Undead and Chaos to unite."
After saying this, Teresa pointed with a gloved hand at the map, "Look, earlier, the Spire Palace had already fallen. According to reports, the northern army of Lorne has also surrounded Richard Castle. If I were the snake of Mousilon, I would realize that the Undead are in dire straits."
"At this moment, the Undead suffered huge losses in the attack on the Spire Palace, losing many Blood Knights and Black Grail Knights. The last Dread Abyssal also died under Ryan's sword. So now, if the snake of Mousilon gives up recapturing the Spire Palace and immediately heads north to rescue Richard Castle, he would face tremendous pressure due to lack of forces. He would be forced to seek allies because if they cannot quickly defeat Lorne and his knightly army, once our forces gather for a pincer attack, the snake will definitely not be able to cope and will have to retreat to Mousilon again." Teresa continued, "In such a case, we can prepare for a long-term siege of Mousilon with ample readiness."
"Therefore, out of necessity, Mashubad has reached an agreement with Chaos, forming a coalition. The Chaos Demon Army destroyed the Spire Palace, reducing the pressure on Mousilon's southern front." This was Teresa's final conclusion. After speaking, the sorceress eagerly looked at Ryan, waiting for his evaluation.
"Heh!" Unexpectedly, before Ryan could speak, Morgiana let out a cold laugh. The Lake Witch's beautiful face was filled with majesty and coldness as she said sternly, "Ms. Teresa, logically speaking, your judgment is not wrong, but I must ask you, if that is the case, what does Chaos gain? Why would they help the Undead?"
"For destruction and slaughter?" Teresa tried to maintain her elegance, "The Undead must have made an agreement with Chaos..."
"No, that's unlikely." Ryan interrupted Teresa, gesturing for Morgiana to listen to him, "The Undead's goal is domination. Whether it's Mashubad or the Lich King Arkhan, their aim is to establish a kingdom of the dead on this land blessed by the Goddess. For Chaos, all they want is..."
"...destruction, complete destruction." Morgiana stared at Teresa, "The Undead want conquest and rule, while Chaos seeks annihilation. The two cannot align, except in extreme circumstances. But the current situation for Mousilon's snake has not reached that point. There have been instances where Dark Elf pirates and northern barbarians allied to raid the Empire and Bretonnian forces, but they faced the Chaos Demon Army."
The Chaos Demon Army consists of Warp creatures. Even with the full support of the Dark Gods, they cannot stay in the mortal world for long as long as the Great Vortex and Great Guardians remain intact.
"Hmm... we currently have too little information." Ryan shook his head in frustration, indicating Morgiana and Teresa should not dwell on this matter. The count loudly said, "We will rest temporarily in the camp within the Chalon Forest. I have written to François and Berchmond for support. Once their armies arrive, we will decide our next move. Please remember, the fighting power of the Chaos Demon Army is unmatched by any mortal army. Do not act impulsively!"
Everyone was aware of the Chaos Demon Army's might. Defeating the demon army led by the Great Demon of Tzeentch, the Weaver of Fates, Karios, without gathering a true army was impossible.
"Understood!" The meeting adjourned. Due to unfavorable battle conditions, the knights, somewhat dejected, slowly left the tent and returned to their respective tents to rest.
"Fedmond, Gerald, stay behind," Ryan signaled for Fedmond and Gerald to remain.
Soon, only five people were left in the tent: Ryan, Teresa, Morgiana, Fedmond, and Gerald. They sat around the table, looking at the map.
It seemed to be drizzling outside. The early spring night was very cold, and even though there was a brazier in the tent, the cold wind still blew in.
None of the five people inside the tent feared the cold. After sitting down, Ryan arranged for everyone to have dinner together. Tonight's dinner was grilled beef steak, roasted lamb chops, stewed broccoli, and corn chowder. The main course was fine cream bread, paired with low-alcohol sweet sparkling cider.
Affected by the defeat, the group was somewhat silent. Morgiana and Teresa didn't eat much meat, only picking at some vegetables and soup, while Ryan, Fedmond, and Gerald ate heartily.
Traditionally, knights with good appetites were seen as strong warriors.
It wasn't until they were nearly finished that Ryan spoke, "Actually, I agree with Teresa's view."
The sorceress's expression lit up instantly. She put down her spoon, her face showing both excitement and a bit of reproach, "Then why didn't you..."
"Ms. Teresa," Gerald gestured for the sorceress to calm down. The Holy Knight said softly, "Because that wasn't the right time. This defeat has already affected the army's morale. If Ryan acknowledged the alliance between the Undead and Chaos at that moment..."
"It would have dealt a huge blow to the army's morale." Fedmond added, the Grail Knight also frowning, "Those of us who have participated in the Grail Expedition know the might of Chaos Great Demons. Unless it's Lord Berchmond, Lord François, or Lord Ryan, no one can deal with a Chaos Great Demon. Even ordinary Grail Knights can't."
The sorceress lowered her head unwillingly.
"It's not your fault, Teresa." Ryan gently patted the sorceress's hand, indicating she shouldn't mind, "You are my courtier. Your duty is to voice your opinions, and it's my job to consider all impacts."
"I still doubt the alliance between the Undead and Chaos," Morgiana shook her head, addressing Ryan, "Ryan, why do you think Mashubad would ally with Chaos?"
"The reason is simple." Ryan nodded, smiling, "In short, it's called behavioral economics."
"Behavioral economics?" The Lake Witch signaled Ryan to continue.
"For example," Ryan nodded, placing ten gold crowns on the table.
"Suppose I am an Imperial merchant transporting a batch of grain to Coronne to sell."
"Now I have two choices. First, I can go through Montfort's Axe Bite Pass. With my strong escort team, I can almost guarantee safety, but due to high tariffs, I can only earn a thousand gold crowns on this trip."
"Or, I can choose the Gray Lady's Path through Palaon. This path is quite dangerous, with only a 50% chance of passing safely. But if successful, I only need to pay low tariffs, so I can earn three thousand or even four thousand gold crowns."
"In this situation, what would you choose?"
As soon as Ryan finished speaking, Gerald and Fedmond unhesitatingly said, "Of course, I would choose Axe Bite Pass, a safe and secure option."
Teresa also agreed with taking Axe Bite Pass, while only Morgiana disdainfully said, "If it were me, I would take the Gray Lady's Path. I don't believe any enemy could harm me."
"Morgiana, you prefer the Gray Lady's Path because you have immense power." Ryan shook his head with a wry smile, "And having you accompany, merchants would be lucky to make a profit of five hundred gold crowns."
"So what are you trying to say?" Morgiana raised her golden eyebrows.
"Let me finish," Ryan shook his head and continued, "Now let's assume if we take the Gray Lady's Path, we encounter a Greenskin tribe, and half of our grain is robbed. Now we face two choices."
"First, we can choose to immediately return, losing half the cargo but saving the other half and our lives."
"Or, we can choose to pursue the Greenskin tribe deeper into the mountains. Assuming we have a 50% chance to recover our goods and a 50% chance to lose not only the remaining goods but possibly our lives. In this case, what would you choose?"
Fedmond and Gerald both realized something. After contemplating for a moment, Fedmond still said, "I think I would choose to pursue the Greenskin tribe."
"Me too," Gerald and Morgiana both believed it necessary to recover the goods, while only the sorceress chose to give up, "Life is most important. I wouldn't risk my life."
"Very good," Ryan smiled, collecting the ten gold crowns, "This is called behavioral economics."
"Humans have a nature that makes them irrational in dealing with gains and losses."
"In the face of gains, humans are risk-averse. They prefer guaranteed gains, even if the gains are lower."
"But in the face of losses, humans tend to take risks. They dislike definite losses and hope to recover losses by taking risks, even if it might
lead to greater losses. If we think about it, the chance of recovering the goods by pursuing the Greenskin tribe is slim, yet many would choose to do so."
"Because humans are more sensitive to losses than gains." Ryan crossed his fingers, placing his hands on his nose with elbows on the table, "When given a choice, most humans hope to take risks to 'break even'."
"Of course, there will be a minority who choose to cut losses. I'm talking about most people, not everyone."
The group pondered deeply.
This issue was quite similar to one Ryan often faced in his previous life: the choice between "100% getting one million and 50% getting five million, 50% getting nothing." Even knowing the second option's expected gain is higher, most people choose the first for the guaranteed million.
However, if the choice were "100% losing one million and 50% losing five million, 50% losing nothing," most would choose the second, despite knowing its expected loss is higher, because they hope to avoid any loss.
It's important to note Ryan was referring to most people, excluding nitpickers and those fully rational.
"You mean Mashubad would compromise with Chaos because he wants to break even, and the fall of the Spire Palace is a definite loss?" Morgiana reluctantly accepted Ryan's point, nodding in understanding, "Compromising with Chaos might help recover the Spire Palace or worsen the situation, but he's willing to take the risk."
"Exactly." Ryan nodded, "Moreover, the gain isn't just recapturing the Spire Palace. The Chaos Demon Army can resist our offensive, allowing Mashubad to focus on Lorne and his forces. This means even if the Tzeentch Demon Army fails, they at least help Mashubad against us, a guaranteed gain."
"In conclusion, it's not surprising for the Undead to compromise with Chaos under duress." Ryan summarized, "This solves half the problem. I'm sure the Undead would compromise with Chaos."
After Ryan's analysis, the remaining four in the tent were convinced. Gerald and Fedmond nodded in agreement, even the firm Morgiana was swayed, "If, according to your explanation, it's indeed possible the Undead have compromised."
"Then the question arises, the Undead can compromise with Chaos, but why would Chaos lend a hand?" Teresa, pleased with Ryan's recognition of her view, ignored Morgiana's warning look and continued, "First, we can be sure Chaos isn't here to destroy. Then only one possibility remains."
"The benefit the Undead can provide Chaos outweighs the destruction of this place."
"The Great Demon of Tzeentch must have received some promise."
After Ryan's words, everyone fell into deep thought.
At this moment, a few bats suddenly flew into the tent. A vampire lord appeared at the tent entrance! He had a bald head, deep-set eyes, and a pale face devoid of any color, "It seeks the relic!"
"Who are you?" Everyone immediately drew their weapons, pointing at the vampire lord.
The vampire lord sneered, throwing his weapon to the ground, then knelt with raised hands in surrender, "Respected Ryan Macador, I am Vampire Baron Hal Harris of the von Carstein family. I come to surrender, seeking your mercy for my sins!"
"Tree World Arrival!!" Morgiana's beautiful green eyes filled with hatred. The Lake Witch cast a spell, and thick branches tightly bound the vampire baron, "Undead! What is your scheme?!"
Hal Harris allowed himself to be sealed, his dark eyes staring at Ryan, "I said, I'm here to surrender. Due to certain compelling reasons, I must surrender to you, Ryan Macador, I have no choice."
"You know I never forgive vampires." Ryan stood up, "What makes you think I will accept your surrender?"
"Yes, I know." Hal Harris remained kneeling, "But I have no choice."
Then, the von Carstein vampire raised his head, "Because I discovered a shocking secret! Great Blood Patriarch Vlad von Carstein above! Damn Mashubad, he has forsaken the Midnight Aristocracy's honor, yielding to Chaos!"
"He no longer deserves to be our leader!"
"Only you can defeat him, Ryan Macador!"
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